Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
